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Our thinking, visible around the world.
The decisions that you make today about geopolitics and geoeconomics will define the long horizon or future of your business. We help leaders act, fast and smart.
Standing assessment of state behaviour, alliance dynamics, and the probability of conflict across every theatre of consequence.
Sanctions, supply chains, capital controls, and the weaponisation of economic interdependence.
Structured, multi-horizon scenarios that stress-test strategy against the futures that have not yet arrived.
Confidential counsel to individual principals — delivered in the room, off the record, on the long view.
Media
Our thinking, visible around the world.
Geopolitical · Risk
As nations act radically, the DNA of markets across Eurasia, the Americas, and Africa is about to shift. The norms and principles that have guided economies are about to be overpowered by geopolitics.
Fractured · World
In 2026, the global economy could be ripped apart as geopolitics forces governments to pick sides. Dealmaking could give way to dealbreaking. Regionalization may usurp globalization. For the first time in a century, multipolarity could steer the world.
New · Geoeconomics
Ports are no longer gateways to the global economy. They are becoming tools of geopolitics. Strategic ports are being walled off, making them inaccessible to some. Instead of driving connectivity, ports risk driving division as governments use them to pick sides and bolster economic security.
Geopolitics · AI
China may, for the first time, create an ecosystem that the rest of the world depends on. The AI doctors may need to be programmed with local Russian regulations or health care rules, and Russian start-ups could emerge to fill this gap, or even to expand the role these AI doctors play.
New · Geoeconomics
Since the pandemic, the idea of "China+1" has gained traction globally. While initially, China+1 was about moving certain production out of China and setting up new bases in adjacent markets, it quickly became about something else.
Fractured · World
The largest IPO in history is blocking China from the get-go. SpaceX (and the US government) do not trust Chinese capital in their $1.8 trillion launch. The geopolitical IPO* has arrived, threatening to destabilize US-China relations and fracturing the global economy.
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The fast changing world of [geopolitics+business] requires everybody to see geopolitics and geoeconomics through new filters.
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About
Who we are
We are an advisory firm offering new thinking and solutions to navigate the fast changing world of [geopolitics+business] and adapt to new realities.